The Time Fence

People rarely sit on fences anymore. No, I’m not talking about the literal kind, though there does seem to be less of that going around as well. My father grew up on a farm, and I imagine in his day they sat on fences a lot and picked their teeth with shoots of hay. They likely spoke their opinions and hemmed and hawed about the state of the world, and some of these fence-sitters probably went back and forth on an issue or two, unable to make up their mind.

Nowadays? Not so much. Everyone seems to have a strong opinion about pretty much everything. If you don’t have an opinion, a quick Google search will land you one. These days, we tend to stand on one side of a fence or the other while we toss insults and barbs over the rail. Less vacillating and more bloviating seems to be the trend. Hardly any perching, waiting, contemplating, hoping to come down on the right side. We just jump to the side our friends are on and root around for a nice, heavy rock.

In a recent Facebook debate, it was world population that we took sides over. I happen to be on the side of the United Nations, which performed the most rigorous study ever conducted on the issue of population growth and decline. Most people I know are on the other side of this fence. My wife works with one woman* who is mortified by how many humans there are. She trembles at the sight of growth forecasts, all of which conveniently end right before the looming decline (with the unwritten threat that this growth is going to continue forever).

In fact, most projections see population growth halting by 2050-2075. The rate of world growth peaked in the 1960s. The people who study this sort of thing have been watching with some alarm at the massive drop-off in fertility rates everywhere that prosperity spreads. One of the great fears people have with feeding the hungry and tending to the sick is that this will free these populations to have more and more needy offspring, but that’s not what happens. When parents know their kids are going to survive to old age, they scale back on having them, trending toward having two or even one.

Many people are choosing to have none at all. In China, the fear is that they took too many corrective measures. Some provinces have taken to urging parents to have more than one child, even offering money. The vast majority of parents are refusing. Part of this is the cultural shame ingrained by longstanding programs. The other part is the new reality of a non-agricultural lifestyle: Kids are now an economic liability, not an economic boon. They don’t work the fields for us, they go to expensive colleges. And besides, we’re too busy having fun in our new urban lifestyles where kids in their 40’s are still hanging out and flitting from job to job. We no longer worry about what we want to be when we “grow up.” Now we wonder what we’re gonna do when we retire (if we ever do).

The fear of the world’s carrying capacity is wholly unfounded. Every human being alive today could fit in the state of Texas, each with their own townhouse. The rest of the world could be farmland and golf courses. And land is only 1/4 of the planet, which leads to our next fear: that we’ll run out of water. Our planet is smothered in the stuff, and we fear it’s going to vanish. Desalination is simple. Parts of Australia already rely on desalinated and piped water. When it gets in short enough supply, we’ll engineer our way through the mess and start charging for it.

The same goes for power. If we ran out of everything else, the world would switch to nuclear and deal with the environmental non-factors and the fear-mongering. Today, we have the luxury of taking a stance on either side of this fence and yelling insults across. The choice may disappear one day when all the fossil fuels are too expensive to reach, and so will the fence. Which brings us back to the literal sorts of fences. Here’s where all the opinions scatter: when real people have to climb real walls.

For the past century, people have argued voraciously on the merits and pitfalls of communism and capitalism. Forget the figurative fences, look for a moment at the literal ones. What do people do with their bodies? They cast them in one direction, often risking their lives to do so. East Germany built a wall to keep people in. The Soviet Union did the same. Cuba relies on its waters, and yet people fjord their way to Florida on coke-bottle rafts.

Capitalist countries on the other hand build walls to try and keep people from rushing in. Europe deals with this just as surely as the United States. And while time travel is not and never will be possible, I find it informative to imagine another kind of fence: A time fence.

Pose this question to yourself and to others: Would you get in a time machine that sent you back into the past if you had no control over where you would end up and who you might be? That is, you might be a woman living without any right to vote or the freedom to chose who you would marry. You might end up the property of another human being. You will live a shorter life full of difficult labor. You will be more aware of death because it will surround you. No refrigeration, no immunization, a limited and seasonal diet, arduous and rare travel.

And for any who delude themselves into thinking they could go back far enough to find a land of noble savages living in harmony with nature, that world is a complete fiction. The further back you go, the greater the chance that you will die at the hands of another human being. Life is ever more barbaric on the other side of this hypothetical fence of the “now.”

Let’s reverse the scenario. How many, instead, would get in a machine that took us into the future? Personally, you would have to kill me before you sent me off into the random past. I’ve read too much history to want to visit the place. The future, though? I’d be the first in line. Even though I couldn’t know which country I’d end up in, what color or gender I would be, I’ve seen enough trends to know that the world is going to continue getting better and better for more and more people.

That’s almost all it has ever done. And the steps backward have been fleeting and atypical. They are usually caused by the hands of a tyrant or warlord and eventually smoothed over by the larger progress of time. North Korea, one day, will be as prosperous as South Korea, another area where physical fences (and rivers) are braved, people moving from one theoretical world (communism) to another (capitalism).

We can talk all we want over figurative fences, but the people who have the ability to choose demonstrate the hard truth when they make a physical climb from one side of a wall to the other. If the Time Fence was a reality, I think the Jeremiahs and the Chicken Littles would quickly scurry over to my side. I think the line to crawl inside the Future Machine would be long indeed. And the one that led to the machine that heads back into the past? I doubt there would be a line for that machine at all. If there was, it would be full of crazy people, people who have not studied history, and the confused few who really, really, need to pee. ___________________________________________________

*It bears mentioning, perhaps, that this is also the only woman I know who is about to have her third kid and is dying for a few more.

COMMENTS (10)

As someone who is a full-time, professional farmer, I certainly hope your take on the world population growth rate holds. Most of the mid-term (next 50 years) curves I have looked at present a daunting challenge for my fellow farmers. Most of us agree we can do it, but it will require a lot of human ingenuity to get it done. And the reality of the situation is humans can only populate to a level that the planet(s) can support – no fence required there.

And I’m right there on that Future Shuttle! No way I’m going backwards.

While I wouldn’t want to get inside a machine to head back to the past, I’m not so sure I’d want to get in one that takes me to the future either. Given all the crap that’s happening in the world and how mankind’s perversions are becoming mainstream, what would the future look like? It just might resemble some of that post-apocalyptic stuff you write about.

I’m with Shawn. Right here and right now is where I wanna be. I’m too afraid the future would resemble something like Deathrace 2000. And Frankenstein would make a turrrrrible president of the provinces.

Yeah. And think how many stories you can pull from those concepts! Wool 6,300! WOOT!

Whenever I find myself wanting to have a passionate argument with another human being I remind myself that my beliefs, my morality are solely mine. Another person with equal intellect and upbringing could conceivably form an opposite opinion.

If I formed my opinions 20 years ago, 100 years ago, 1000 years ago I would likely, all other things being the same, form entirely different opinions or moral beliefs.

Biblical and historical accounts are full of things that were perfectly “moral” and “right” at the time. Today we look back at those events with repulsion.

While there are some things (beliefs, morals, etc) that seem to be universal there are millions of things that seem to be relative to the progress of humanity. Like you said… we can hate nuclear energy all we want today because we have that luxury. If all other forms of energy became ineffective or insufficient our morality would shift out of self preservation (or our ingenuity would create something scarier than nuclear energy and we could all protests that).

Sitting on the fence is a good thing, it keeps you grounded and reminds you that YOU could be the one that is wrong.

My mom something calls me after a troubling world event and jokingly “apologizes” for creating me during this era. I wouldn’t travel to the past or the future (although I would love to know what the future is like). Today is fantastic, knowledge is becoming more and more assessable to the masses, technology is quickly evolving and spreading, diseases are being cured, vaccines created, equalities granted, etc.

I think now is a pretty kick ass time! I can sit on my living room floor, in my jammies, and have a philosophical discussion with intelligent people from all over the world. My parents didn’t have that ability, and my grandchildren wont be able to even conceive a world without it.

Yeah, in the future I might be able to have the conversation with “people” from all over the galaxy, but still, I really love the now (although if any of you get to the future send me a memo about how awesome it is).

Really well said Hugh! The population thing intrigues me, but I’m a 34 year old father of five in Kansas…and I’m not that unusual here. Most people here have 3-4 kids (5 is for crazy people I know). But I think geography plays a big role. I live in a city of 170,000 people. Housing is cheap, you don’t need two incomes to live on, and you are surrounded by hours and hours of endless farmland, hills, and prairies…so you feel like you got lots of space to live in. Contrast that to places in the US and Europe where family size is declining. Those areas are defined by millions of people living on top of each other, where cities blur into one another. Heck, look at NYC, housing costs are insane, people are stacked on top of each other, no wonder those areas tend to feel like a population bomb is ready to go off.

I also like something you said earlier about culture over time. You know, I don’t think anything really changes that much. I mean when I read the book of Romans or something from the Bible, you have Paul writing to a culture even more depraved then our own…yet it’s REALLY familiar. What were the big things happening back then 2000 years ago, love of money, pride, lust, a feeling of superiority and invincibility. Heck the US has only been around for 250 years, Rome was doing its thing for centuries longer, and up until 150 years ago, was a heck of a lot more advanced then our founding father were (the wealthy and middle class had indoor plumbing! My grandma grew up in Whiting, KS…she did not grow up with indoor plumbing!)

So my point is, the more we think things change, the more they stay the same. It would be interesting to see the future, but I have a feeling the technology may improve, but mans heart stays the same, and the same issues Paul challenged the Romans about (pride, lust, love of money)… They will still be hanging around. So I’m going to enjoy today, read the Hurricane and let tomorrow come as it always does….I have a feeling I know what it will look like!

We’re living in The Time the people of the future will want to visit. We went from horse & buggy to space shuttle in less than 100 years. My great grandfather drove a stagecoach. His granddaughter flies helicopters and can vote. No civilization in the recorded history of man has made such technological and sociological leaps and bounds. We are THE most fascinating times and while our modern medicines (penicillin = YAY) may have drawbacks (resistant TB = BOO) and our methods of energy (nuclear = YAY) might backfire (earthquake+ tsunami +4 nuclear plants = radioactive ocean /BOO) we are still plugging dutifully forward. These will be excruciatingly interesting times as the same old/same old crumbles. We have the ability to make this world an amazing launching pad for exploration. I don’t see population as a problem unless the population is diseased, dispossessed, downtrodden and/or defeated. I think fiction opens our eyes to reality. I may rail against the status quo and feel alone when I watch the media that plays only that which disheartens the rational mind but then I remember, DAMN, we are living in the coolest age EVER. Sure, 500 years from now folks might be flying to Mars in personal vehicles for a little one on one with a three-breasted woman but WE are the ones who MADE IT HAPPEN. I went from school library to INTERNET. I went from turn table to iPod! A youngster (20 something) brought in the latest iPod and I was like, is that a phone? And he’s all no, and I was like LET ME SEE THAT and then I proceeded to play ANGRY BIRDS until he said, “Uh, Lara, I gotta go. I need to pick up my girlfriend” and I said, “Do you have to take this with you?” and he said, “It has all my music on it” and I was like, “Can you watch movies on this?” and he was like, “Yes, but not right now, Lara. Let go of it. Please. Stop pulling on it.” And I turned to his mother and said, “Remember the Walkman?” and she was like “Remember 45’s?” and I was like, “damn, woman, you’re old.” Yes, these are the times the People of the Future will want to visit. This is The Time when everything was/is changing so fast travelers will have to pay extra to calibrate the time machine.

I’m sure you know this already, but the Omnibus is #2 in the top rated Kindle eBooks. YAY!

Getting a little spoiled Hugh! ;). Don’t worry I am schmoozing a book club here in Topeka to select Wool for their summer selection. We’ll get you back on top!